4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Monday 2025-12-22 · 20:15 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

SF
56.6%
IND
43.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Philip Rivers (IND) -0.090 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.179 EPA/dropback
  • IND offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Philip Rivers (IND) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

SF 26
–
IND 24
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SF

Renardo Green CB Out Neck
Ricky Pearsall WR Out Knee
Kurtis Rourke QB Out Knee
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Questionable Hamstring

IND

Sauce Gardner CB Out Calf
Bernhard Raimann T Out Elbow
Daniel Scott S Out Knee
Anthony Richardson QB Out Eye
Anthony Gould WR Out Foot

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 48
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:36 TD IND (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-96-C.Ferrell, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 07:19 TD SF (7:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 5-D.Robinson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – IND 7
  • Q1 04:37 TD SF (4:37) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – IND 7
  • Q2 14:19 TD IND (14:19) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-28-D.Luter, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. SF 14 – IND 13
  • Q2 09:42 TD SF (9:42) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 85-G.Kittle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – IND 14
  • Q2 01:55 FG SF (1:55) 18-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 24 – IND 14
  • Q2 00:21 FG IND (:21) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. SF 24 – IND 17
  • Q3 11:02 TD SF (11:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 15-J.Jennings for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – IND 17
  • Q3 08:21 FG IND (8:21) 10-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. SF 31 – IND 20
  • Q3 04:07 FG SF (4:07) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead. SF 34 – IND 20
  • Q4 12:45 TD IND (12:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – IND 26
  • Q4 07:42 TD SF (7:42) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 40 – IND 27
  • Q4 03:38 TD SF (3:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 84-T.Warren INTERCEPTED by 53-D.Winters at SF 26. 53-D.Winters for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 47 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 42%

    (12:39) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to IND 46 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (7:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to SF 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 9-S.Moore.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:55) 18-E.Pineiro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (:21) 10-B.Grupe 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 77%

    (8:21) 10-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (4:07) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass incomplete short left to 9-C.Owen.