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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 17 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-B.Grupe 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.51 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.43 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model