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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 18-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-7-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model