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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP