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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
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Carolina Panthers

HC Dave Canales
Sunday 2025-12-21 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TB
43.6%
CAR
56.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB on 3 more days rest than CAR

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
CAR 23
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

No players on the report.

CAR

Tershawn Wharton DT Out Hamstring
Trevin Wallace LB Out Shoulder
David Moore WR Questionable Elbow
Ikem Ekwonu T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:34 FG CAR (10:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. TB 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 04:06 TD TB (4:06) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 3
  • Q2 08:13 FG TB (8:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 10 – CAR 3
  • Q2 02:10 FG CAR (2:10) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. TB 10 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:12 TD CAR (:12) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 4-T.McMillan for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 10 – CAR 12
  • Q3 06:45 TD TB (6:45) 44-S.Tucker left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – CAR 13
  • Q3 00:17 TD CAR (:17) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 0-J.Sanders for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 17 – CAR 19
  • Q4 11:29 FG TB (11:29) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. TB 20 – CAR 20
  • Q4 02:24 FG CAR (2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. TB 20 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (10:34) 10-R.Fitzgerald 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 20 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:28) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson. Penalty on TB-58-M.Watts, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (8:13) 4-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:34) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-K.Johnson to TB 21 for 7 yards (29-A.Evans; 87-B.Tremayne). ** Injury Update: CAR-33-R.Rochell has returned to the game.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (2:10) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CAR 24, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 37 for 13 yards (43-C.Braswell; 57-J.Bullock).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (11:29) 4-C.McLaughlin 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:02) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 17 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to CAR 9, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne pushed ob at CAR 17 for 8 yards (19-K.Johnson). PENALTY on TB-86-E.Deckers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 17.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%

    (2:24) 10-R.Fitzgerald 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.