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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model