Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

(1:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CAR 24, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 37 for 13 yards (43-C.Braswell; 57-J.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.89 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model