Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

(8:02) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model