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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 39-M.Haack punts 63 yards to CIN 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model