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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 52.5

Win Probability

ARI
35.9%
CIN
64.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN defense: +0.137 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.125 vs Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.010 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
CIN 25
Projected margin: CIN by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Budda Baker S Out Concussion
Evan Brown G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Paris Johnson Jr. T Out Knee
Kei'Trel Clark CB Out Back
Josh Sweat LB Questionable Ankle
Hjalte Froholdt C Questionable Elbow
Jalen Thompson S Questionable Hamstring
Max Melton CB Questionable Heel
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Questionable Heel
Will Johnson CB Questionable Thumb

CIN

Joseph Ossai DE Out Ankle
Charlie Jones WR Out Ankle
Matt Lee C Out Knee
Cam Grandy TE Out Chest
B.J. Hill DT Questionable Ankle
Noah Fant TE Questionable Ankle
Josh Newton CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 14
–
CIN 37

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:25 TD CIN (9:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CIN 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) 61-C.Ford and 62-L.Patrick reported in as eligible. 34-S.Perine right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – CIN 13
  • Q2 11:54 TD ARI (11:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – CIN 13
  • Q2 03:25 FG CIN (3:25) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. ARI 7 – CIN 16
  • Q2 01:17 TD CIN (1:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CIN 22
  • Q3 07:38 TD CIN (7:38) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CIN 29
  • Q3 01:41 TD CIN (1:41) 30-C.Brown right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – CIN 36
  • Q4 01:56 TD ARI (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – CIN 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:58) 39-M.Haack punts 45 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 21 for 7 yards (45-J.Deguara; 44-O.Pappoe).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%

    (:08) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell; 90-Z.Carter).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-W.Wagner. 80-S.Sims to ARI 33 for 5 yards (43-J.Giles-Harris; 42-O.Burks).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:17) 39-M.Haack punts 63 yards to CIN 2, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (3:25) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:33) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to ARI 36 for 43 yards (84-E.Higgins).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:25) 39-M.Haack punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 34 for 17 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 31-E.Demercado). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 17.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:09) 39-M.Haack punts 61 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 16 for 6 yards (31-E.Demercado).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:34) 39-M.Haack punts 54 yards to CIN 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 41 for 13 yards (27-A.Davis-Gaither; 30-D.Hall). PENALTY on CIN-33-D.Anthony, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 28.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 89-X.Weaver to CIN 32 for 23 yards (22-G.Stone).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (12:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to CIN 14 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter; 23-D.Hill).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 42%

    (6:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to ARI 8, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 55%

    (2:54) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-M.Wilson to CIN 25 for 15 yards (38-D.Ivey).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 85-T.McBride for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.