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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 38

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP