Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

(2:33) 39-M.Haack punts 50 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to ARI 36 for 43 yards (84-E.Higgins).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model