4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

What Actually Happened

(:25) 39-M.Haack punts 53 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 34 for 17 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 31-E.Demercado). PENALTY on CIN-38-D.Ivey, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at CIN 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 70, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model