Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 23

(14:09) 39-M.Haack punts 61 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams to CIN 16 for 6 yards (31-E.Demercado).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.23 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model