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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 37

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to CIN 14 for 4 yards (49-B.Carter; 23-D.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model