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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 37 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to ARI 8, impetus ends at ARI 2, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-26-T.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP