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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 39-M.Haack punts 45 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-K.Williams pushed ob at CIN 21 for 7 yards (45-J.Deguara; 44-O.Pappoe).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP