4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 2

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) 9-J.Burrow up the middle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (93-C.Campbell; 90-Z.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +4.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.76 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model