Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 66

Chicago Bears 21 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(1:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (33-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model