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Chicago Bears

11-5 HC Ben Johnson
@
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San Francisco 49ers

12-4 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 20:20 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

CHI
38.1%
SF
61.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CHI offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Brock Purdy (SF): +0.228 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.018 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 24 17–31
–
SF 27 20–34
Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

Nick McCloud CB Out Illness
Rome Odunze WR Out Foot
DJ Moore WR Questionable Illness
Olamide Zaccheaus WR Questionable Illness
C.J. Gardner-Johnson CB Questionable Knee
T.J. Edwards LB Questionable Glute
Nahshon Wright CB Questionable Hamstring
Josh Blackwell CB Questionable Illness
Darnell Wright T Questionable Illness
Luke Newman G Questionable Foot

SF

Renardo Green CB Out Neck
Kurtis Rourke QB Out Knee
George Kittle TE Questionable Ankle
Ricky Pearsall WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 38
–
SF 42

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:54 TD CHI (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 11:02 TD SF (11:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – SF 6
  • Q1 04:59 TD SF (4:59) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – SF 13
  • Q1 03:05 TD CHI (3:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SF 14
  • Q2 13:49 TD SF (13:49) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – SF 20
  • Q2 12:28 TD CHI (12:28) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 84-C.Loveland for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-93-K.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined. CHI 20 – SF 21
  • Q2 03:27 TD SF (3:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – SF 27
  • Q3 09:55 TD CHI (9:55) 4-D.Swift right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – SF 28
  • Q3 05:01 TD SF (5:01) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – SF 34
  • Q4 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 92-D.Hardy reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 34 – SF 35
  • Q4 05:26 FG CHI (5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 38 – SF 35
  • Q4 02:23 TD SF (2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 38 – SF 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:52) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 34 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 21-T.Homer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%

    (8:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-R.Pearsall to CHI 24 for 14 yards (26-N.Wright).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (33-J.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to SF 22 for 9 yards (28-D.Luter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%

    (11:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).

    See the full breakdown →