Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- CHI offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Brock Purdy (SF): +0.228 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- SF defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
CHI
SF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 14:54 TD CHI (14:54) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards (1-J.Johnson) at SF 34. 53-T.Edwards for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – SF 0
- Q1 11:02 TD SF (11:02) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – SF 6
- Q1 04:59 TD SF (4:59) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – SF 13
- Q1 03:05 TD CHI (3:05) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – SF 14
- Q2 13:49 TD SF (13:49) 23-C.McCaffrey right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 14 – SF 20
- Q2 12:28 TD CHI (12:28) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 84-C.Loveland for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-93-K.Davis, Defensive Offside, declined. CHI 20 – SF 21
- Q2 03:27 TD SF (3:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 21 – SF 27
- Q3 09:55 TD CHI (9:55) 4-D.Swift right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – SF 28
- Q3 05:01 TD SF (5:01) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – SF 34
- Q4 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 92-D.Hardy reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 34 – SF 35
- Q4 05:26 FG CHI (5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. CHI 38 – SF 35
- Q4 02:23 TD SF (2:23) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle to 15-J.Jennings for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 38 – SF 41
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 57%
(10:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.
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Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(7:52) 7-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(6:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 34 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 21-T.Homer).
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Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 38Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 63%
(8:07) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-R.Pearsall to CHI 24 for 14 yards (26-N.Wright).
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:15) 19-T.Taylor punts 57 yards to SF 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 9 for no gain (33-J.Jones).
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Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 78%
(:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to SF 22 for 9 yards (28-D.Luter).
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%
(11:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 26 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%
(:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).