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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 31

Chicago Bears 28 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to SF 22 for 9 yards (28-D.Luter).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model