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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Chicago Bears 35

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 7-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP