4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 11

Chicago Bears 35 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model