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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 26

Chicago Bears 38 – San Francisco 49ers 42

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland to SF 13 for 13 yards (53-D.Winters).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +2.34 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.34 EP