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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 78

Chicago Bears 7 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 9-S.Moore to SF 34 for 11 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 21-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.52 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model