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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model