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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Thursday 2025-12-25 · 16:30 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

DET
76.3%
MIN
23.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Max Brosmer (MIN) -0.675 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.144 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Max Brosmer in place of J.J. McCarthy)
  • DET offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
MIN 16
Projected margin: DET by 10 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

DET

Avonte Maddox CB Out Back
Giovanni Manu T Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Shoulder
Al-Quadin Muhammad DE Questionable Knee
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Shoulder
Tom Kennedy WR Questionable Abdomen
David Montgomery RB Questionable Illness
Trystan Colon G Questionable Wrist
Khalil Dorsey CB Questionable Illness
Amik Robertson CB Questionable Hand
Alim McNeill DT Questionable Abdomen
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR Questionable Knee
Christian Mahogany G Questionable Fibula

MIN

Ryan Kelly C Out Concussion
T.J. Hockenson TE Out Shoulder
Jordan Mason RB Out Ankle
J.J. McCarthy QB Out Hand
Gavin Bartholomew TE Out Back
Brian O'Neill T Questionable Heel

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 10
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:38 TD MIN (1:38) 33-A.Jones left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 01:10 TD DET (1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game. DET 6 – MIN 7
  • Q3 03:07 FG MIN (3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 7 – MIN 10
  • Q3 02:02 FG MIN (2:02) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 7 – MIN 13
  • Q4 04:44 FG DET (4:44) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – MIN 13
  • Q4 03:52 TD MIN (3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – MIN 19
  • Q4 01:08 FG MIN (1:08) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. DET 10 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:32) 17-R.Wright punts 48 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 37 for 4 yards (40-S.Takitaki; 32-T.Chandler).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%

    (10:42) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (3:16) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to MIN 2 for 1 yard (55-E.Wilson). Minnesota challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (1:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: DET-58-P.Sewell has returned to the game.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:26) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 30%

    (11:11) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Nailor.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:44) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to DET 33, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 36 for 3 yards (36-Z.Scott).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 75%

    (3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 67%

    (2:02) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 20 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 37%

    (13:03) 17-R.Wright punts 41 yards to DET 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 16 for 7 yards (0-I.Pace).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:01) 3-J.Fox punts 70 yards to MIN 1, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:24) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to DET 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 45 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham; 36-Z.Scott).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (4:44) 39-J.Bates 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 89%

    (1:08) 16-W.Reichard 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.