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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 53

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to MIN 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Nailor.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP