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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model