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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.89 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model