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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 8 at the 50
Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0
What Actually Happened
(10:42) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.82 EP
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK
-1.49 EP
- 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
- 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT
-0.77 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
