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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 94

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to DET 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 45 for 14 yards (30-C.Ham; 36-Z.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.43 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 94, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model