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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 52

Houston Texans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to LAC 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model