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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Saturday 2025-12-27 · 16:30 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

HOU
39.6%
LAC
60.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Justin Herbert (LAC) -0.001 vs C.J. Stroud (HOU) +0.122 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 22
–
LAC 25
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

HOU

Trent Brown T Out Ankle
Justin Watson WR Out Calf
Darrell Taylor DE Out Ankle
Jamal Hill LB Out Wrist
Ajani Carter CB Out Hamstring
Aireontae Ersery T Questionable Thumb

LAC

Benjamin St-Juste CB Out Shoulder
Jamaree Salyer G Out Hamstring
Derius Davis WR Out Ankle
R.J. Mickens S Out Shoulder
Teair Tart DT Questionable Groin
Mekhi Becton G Questionable Knee
Kimani Vidal RB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 20
–
LAC 16

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:30 TD HOU (13:30) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 81-J.Higgins for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 09:24 TD HOU (9:24) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 14-J.Noel for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – LAC 0
  • Q2 06:13 FG LAC (6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. HOU 14 – LAC 3
  • Q3 06:07 FG HOU (6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 17 – LAC 3
  • Q3 00:17 TD LAC (:17) 64-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 86-O.Gadsden for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. HOU 17 – LAC 9
  • Q4 06:33 FG HOU (6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 20 – LAC 10
  • Q4 03:40 TD LAC (3:40) (Shotgun) 8-O.Hampton up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – LAC 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:28) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-89-W.Dissly.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 21 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips; 40-K.Williamson).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LAC 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 18 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:43) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 32%

    (11:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 44 yards to LAC 8, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (9:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to HOU 46, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-31-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (6:13) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to LAC 13, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (:14) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:32) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:59) 6-T.Townsend punts 55 yards to LAC 24, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 30 for 6 yards (31-D.Clark).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:45) 16-J.Scott punts 22 yards to LAC 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to LAC 2, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-42-J.Ingram.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:42) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to HOU 45, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 87%

    (6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.