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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 85

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to HOU 46, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-31-D.Clark, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 46.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.04 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP