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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 14

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) 11-C.Dicker 32 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.63 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model