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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model