Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Houston Texans 14

(9:45) 16-J.Scott punts 22 yards to LAC 47, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model