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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 23

Houston Texans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.34 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model