Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Houston Texans 17

(10:42) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to HOU 45, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.42 EP
60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model