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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 26

Houston Texans 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.21 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model