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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 16-J.Scott punts 44 yards to HOU 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-J.Noel ran ob at HOU 21 for 4 yards (53-D.Phillips; 40-K.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model