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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 67

Houston Texans 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LAC 11, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 15-L.McConkey to LAC 18 for 7 yards (45-E.Speed).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model