Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(:43) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to HOU 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-J.Noel. PENALTY on HOU-11-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.41 EP
49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model