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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model