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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Liam Coen
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2025-12-28 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

JAX
60.1%
IND
39.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.142 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 25
–
IND 19
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

JAX

Jourdan Lewis CB Out Foot
Patrick Mekari G Out Back
Jalen McLeod LB Out Ankle
Danny Striggow DE Out Ankle
Robert Hainsey C Questionable Groin
Bhayshul Tuten RB Questionable Finger

IND

DeForest Buckner DT Out Neck
Andrew Ogletree TE Out Neck
Daniel Scott S Out Knee
Anthony Richardson QB Out Eye
Dalton Tucker G Out Shoulder
Tanor Bortolini C Out Concussion
Anthony Gould WR Out Foot
Jaylahn Tuimoloau DE Out Oblique
Buddy Johnson LB Questionable Illness
Tyler Goodson RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 23
–
IND 17

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:18 FG IND (11:18) 10-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. JAX 0 – IND 3
  • Q2 12:52 TD IND (12:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – IND 9
  • Q2 05:45 TD JAX (5:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 10
  • Q3 07:30 TD JAX (7:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 10
  • Q3 06:02 TD IND (6:02) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – IND 16
  • Q3 01:29 FG JAX (1:29) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – IND 17
  • Q4 07:03 FG JAX (7:03) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 20 – IND 17
  • Q4 00:24 FG JAX (:24) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 23 – IND 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (11:18) 10-B.Grupe 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:58) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 17 for 5 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox). PENALTY on IND-20-N.Cross, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 17.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 40 for 3 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:18) 9-L.Cooke punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 95%

    (1:29) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:12) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-P.Washington to JAX 30 for 2 yards (35-J.Edwards).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 89%

    (9:30) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to IND 24 for no gain (95-A.Adebawore). (Virtual Measurement).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (7:03) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 35%

    (3:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short left to 14-A.Pierce (6-G.Newsome).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 64%

    (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence left guard to IND 36 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 73%

    (:24) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.