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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to JAX 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model