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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 13 at the 24

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 39-C.Little 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 34, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model