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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-T.Lawrence left guard to IND 36 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model