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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LA 12, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model